Taking the Positives, The costs of a free speech

Premandup

🙄 AshleyI have listened to the Mike Ashley’s speech whilst Toonsy has reacted to it on a general level I’d like to pick up on the financial implications.

First off he said that we can now punch above our weight. Well historically we have been back in the pack, best of the rest along with Villa, Sunderland & Everton. There has recently been a 50% gap up to spurs recently. And then to Liverpool with over twice the revenue of ourselves before the big jump up to the big 4. The other thing to consider is that with the new TV deals the revenues each club has is not clear, or more accurately I haven’t done the research. Also does FFP still apply or can he work on the assumption that by the time any sanctions would be applied in three years time the rules will have changed. So what does punching above our weight actually mean. Well closing the gap on Spurs would do that, and Spurs Had a wage bill of £100m in the 2014 season (we spent £78m). Given the new deals I can assume that is going up for the 2016 season. So lets assume that we are going to increase expenditure on the footballing side by say 100%. Lets say that we are going to spend £150m on the squad, and assume that that is an increase of £75m. We will let our increased TV revenues just cover that. Our Turnover was about £130m. We had £35m in Cash, and I see no sign that we have spent it so let’s be gung ho, but reasonable. This is Mike we are talking about.

He said win something, and which like Wenger before him includes coming 4th in the EPL. Now I don’t see tripling squad expenditure to challenge for top 4 as an equal as being a target. Arsenal, Cheapskates of the top 4 had a turnover of £300m and a wage bill of over £165m. I think it’s more if we get lucky, and others have bad years sort of thing.

He said that he won’t be choosing the manager he will be leaving that to Lee Charnley and the football borad, so Lee’s job is safe. But since he did not say anything about John Carver I can assume that he is gone.

He also said that he will provide the maximum available resources but expects the boad to get the best pound for pound value from them. So I don’t think he is going to throw money at the problem big time.

So if we did start to punch above our weight I’m going to assume that we have £35m in Cash with an additional £10m from player sales to spend on transfer fees, and that we are looking to increase our wage bill by £75mpa. This will stretch our finances but not break them.

First up and most important we need a top manager. What will that cost. Looking at the salaries of the top earning EPL managers, Rogers on £3.25m, Pellegrini on £3.5m then Wenger, LVG & Mourinho on £6-10m. So we need to match that and spend maybe £5m to get a top man. Obviously we would like Kloop, Anchelotti or Rafa, but would settle for Moyes. Personally I would go for Bielsa, Emery or Garcia if they were available. Maybe Frank de Boer. Or Bert VanMarwijk. We need to build.

Assuming we do the right thing and ditch the 1st team coaching squad I would like to use some explayers to get a bit more experience and balls into the club. I would bring Ketsbia in as an assistant manager and give Jonas a coaching role. Build to the future. So the staff would be another £5m. However FTSOTB – YCMIU. This would still leave thick end of £65m for Players wages.

Players. Well top players cost money. A top player, a purple to use the venacular, would cost at least £15m in fees so that 3. However, at £100k pw a player costs £5m per year each. So that is £15m of the wage bill gone. We still have £50m to go so we could get 10 free’s however they still require a signing fee which we would have to put through increased wages but still we are likely to be restricted by the quality out there more than the finances.

So 3 top signings and cover wherever we need it. So where do we need it?

GK we are fine although Alnwick is out of Contract.

Defence is the problem but only Raylor, Streete and Satka are out of contract. Our 3 main centrebacks all starting the final year of their contracts So we need to start again basically. We need a CB as one of our Big Three. If we could get Micah Richards on a free as well that would do it for this year. However, he may be on massive wages from his time at Citeh. Actually this is one area where McLaren would not be too bad a shout, he can organise a defence.

Midfield we are losing Jonas & Sammi. But have the Rangers Loanees and Marveaux back. Bit more width and creativity would not go amiss. Again we have been linked with Ayew amongst many others.

Up front we need to find real goalscorers. Ayoze looks good and Cisse can score on his day but we need a 20 per year man. I see Luuk de Jong got that this season. Funny that. There is a 20 year old Latvian Vladislavs Gutkovskis who got 28 this year. Would only cost £½ m. Worth a shout.

Anyway enough fantasy, my point is that spending the money on a top coach is not that expensive and we have enough talent in the squad if properly motivated and used. A few for the first team and a couple on the bench should do it. We can afford it.

Who knows things may be looking up.

By Premandup

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281 thoughts on “Taking the Positives, The costs of a free speech”

  1. Prem very interesting thread mate with a lot of work put in , will get a better read later only had time to skim through it

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  4. Good read Orem, nice to have you back. I would love to see us really push on and improve the squad this season, but would be suprised if they did so AND sustained it for the next few seasond. I’d say we need genuine width with proper crossers of the ball, cover in both full back positions, a couple of CB’s and a couple of proper good strikers. That’s a lot of dough.

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  5. On McLaren, he is experienced and has sound knowledge of Europe so I’d not be upset at his arrival, albeit a little underwhelmed. I maintain no contract could have been signed in January for him, otherwise Derby would not have sacked him. They would have waited for compo. Good thing about McLaren is he has a team of well respected coaches to sort our defending out. Although we also need to.learn how to cross and defend/attack corners! And score goals and pass to feet – basically play football.

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  6. was a great read bud til i got to the Micah Richards you got to be kiding he hes only 5 foot 11 lol

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  8. Shamrock yeah it is a lot of money but not every player needs to cost £12-15M. We probably need at least 2 top notch attacking players and one CB that will cost that much. Beyond that there can be Free agents, a few Carr specials, and a loaner or so to fill out the squad.

    It’s just tough to say what we need since we don’t know who will be leaving yet

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  9. the air space round the pen area we need defenders that can control the air space and richards aint ganna do that said last summer we weak with balls into the box

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  10. Hmm Suggested we need a new CB for Leading the defence and Richards as a back up on a free.

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  11. PREMANDUP
    sorry bud i read it wrong thought ya were surgesting him as our new cb lol

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  12. Good article Prem. I’ve thought for the last 2 years we should go for Richards. For free is even better and let’s face it, even only as backup, he is so much better than the backup we have right now

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  13. but richards would still be risky hes on a huge wage and aint it 2 years or so since he last played ?

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  14. It was a name to get the debate going. New Leader with Dummett or Lescalles. With Janmaat & Santon (who is only on loan ATM as full Backs) things might not be too bad. We could even include Colo if we went three at the back.

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  15. Nice little story Prem.
    I see Mbiwa scored the winner for Roma on Sunday putting them in CL. Also interesting – Roma not that impressed with Rudi Garcia!
    The quoted months delay for the manager coincides nicely with Laudrup being available then . . . not that I know anything and assumed it would be SM (with Carver as assistant?)

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  20. Toonarmy he may well be gone but it has not been signed yet. It’s loan with a clause to buy at about £7m according to TransferMarkt. So still to sold. Same with Marveaux although he is only £2.2m. I gaol and 4 assists last year. how we missed him. Not.

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  23. <<<<<<<<<<<<<<<< this dude here was laughing when he saw the hull fans partying when they signed him wernt partying long were they lol

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  28. Prem, good read, some great points and common sense ideas but you do realise it’s the Toon you’re expecting to get it right ❓ 🙄 They wouldn’t know how to organise a **** up in a brewery, let alone implement a decent recruitment policy for coach or players.

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  31. MDS
    yeah weve been linked with him before but came with quite a hefty transfer fee then

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  33. I would take Milner but his probably wants more than 60k a week. Richards would be good back up for Saylor because there both made of glass. Wages biggest problem so it won’t happen, cheaper alternatives.

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  34. think celtic offered him a contract but i think hes waiting to see what other offers come in

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  39. Kim 35 percent is still very high for that scumbag. Look at what his done to poor Rangers. I’m with the 65 percent, talk is cheap.

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  40. Imagine what damage fatty will do here before he sales up. I agree with Icedog completely. Enjoy this window if he does show a hint of ambition because the next 2 years t.v money is all his.

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  42. <<<<<<<<<<<<< is with the 35 per cent til the season starts at which point i will of expected him to have taken action,the quality of the players we sign and the manager will be the giveway if hes lying in my opion,best not be hearing any **** like we tryed but could not get them over the line

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  43. All kicking off with FIFA then 😆 Let’s hope one of the arrested drops Blatter in the ****.

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  44. TAE, Well he’s been shown to be a liar in a court of law and don’t give a toss, so doing it in front of TV viewers won’t bother him either mate. The guy is shameless it would seem.

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  45. Yeah it would be nice to see some justice Kim. He was bribed to fix that world cup and ruined our chances winning or losing fairly.

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  46. Kim the FBI just raided CONCACAF’s offices in Miami. Blatter’s a slippery devil but some of these guys will roll on him when faced with serious prison time.

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  47. KIMTOON
    i dont trust him but after his interview im willing to give him a few months til the start of the season to prove himself

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  50. Mourinho did mention that the key success is matic and fabregas…

    at Newcastle, we do need a better CDM and someone who can provide the killer pass.

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  51. FIFA a bunch of crooks always have been,the English press have had a go at them a while back but were told by FIFA it was all rubbish oh aye, looks like it,in the **** now the FBI will leave no stone un-turned its bad if these guys are involved

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  53. “This sort of corruption and bribery in international soccer has been going on for two decades,” he says, adding the investigation leading to these indictments took years. “This is only the beginning.”

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  54. Bit of bean-counting, though in all fairness you stated that to begin with and one certainly has to take the fact money is central to our present problem.

    Afraid I disagree with your acceptance of McClaren, or any present re-tread home countries manager.

    I believe it’s time for a younger manager, who has shown the ability to play an entertaining style of play, perhaps not Bielsa himself, but perhaps one of his desciples, who could simplify his more complicated strategies, as it takes a very smart side to understand and fill his requirements, which in turn takes time.

    Though I believe Colo. has played well over the years, it’s time for both he and his fellow Argentino to end their careers, playing at home, which means we have to go for at least one decent dominating CB.

    One has only to look at the goals against record to figure that out.

    As for the coaching, any group that can’t organize a decent set play, having had years in which to do it, should be gone, a clean sweep, let the new guy bring in his own people, being a Geordie should not be a consideration.

    Above all, players such as Sissoko, Janmaat, Krul and Colback, should be retained under any cost, the rest are up for grabs, though I believe young Haidara and possibly Perez, may yet come good, plus others could be maintained in the role of Squad players.

    But the side has a lot of deadwood at present, which needs freshening up, though I don’t expect Ashley to spring for any real top of the line players, probably the same free agents or cheap prospects.

    Again it’s obvious Ashley either doesn’t get it (I think he does, but has his own agenda) that what’s really needed is a top management team, a DOF, combined with a decent young manager who can get together with Carr and pick by committee the required players needed

    As during the Pardew regime, Carr picked Ashley’s requirements, young prospects that would be profitable as stepping stone players, not Pardew’s requirements, that’s why such flair players such as Santon, HBA, Marveaux, etc warmed the bench.

    The remnants of that era still remain and so does the system, a DOF could change all that nonsense and the way the side plays, but it should have been prepared months ago, (forget idiots like Llambias, Pardew, the pudgy little GM and Joe Kinnear), none of which knew diddly squat about football should remain in the dust bin of football history and we should start anew with a professional management team.

    It’s essential that there be a restructuring of how the club operates, and about time we saw some entertaining football, who wants to watch the dull old fashioned defensive game played by Pardew, after all there was a time when NUFC, were known as the entertainers, who were every-ones second team and were welcome at every ground in the country.

    However it appears we may wait weeks before a new manager is installed, or worse we end up with either McClaren or Carver, if that happens, you can forget about it, as the Ashley speech woul prove to be no more than a publicity stunt, in order to sell season tickets and nothing will change.

    Lets see ?

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  56. Chuck I merely said that he could organise a defence. My choice would be from the list I gave

    Obviously we would like Kloop, Anchelotti or Rafa, but would settle for Moyes. Personally I would go for Bielsa, Emery or Garcia if they were available. Maybe Frank de Boer. Or Bert VanMarwijk. We need to build.

    Note that personally Bielsa is top of my list and one of his disciples would do me fine.

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  57. Its a bit of a catch 22. I believe the club are generating huge profits that can be used as transfer fees but if you bring in expensive players then their wages will eat into profits. However, the increase in TV money should help somewhat. With the free agents off the wage bill plus ben Arfa, Mbiwa, Santon and perhaps Marveaux there should be some room for new players’ wages.

    Ashley will not do this in one year though. He wants the club to be at worst self-sustaining while at the same time gifting Sports Direct free advertising. He will be waiting for the next batch of free agents (including Coloccini) to get off the wage bill. I do not see this as a 1 or 2 transfer window policy and Fatty will wait for the extra TV money before spending. Unfortunately, I think we may see more inflation in wages as other clubs spend the money before they have it. So, there’s another catch 22 – if we wait the players will be more expensive because Agents will be comparing their players to what others earn in an inflated market.

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  59. Yeah Santon is a done deal. Has not ours any more. Richards would be great as a squad player and he’d be happy because he can give our central defenders and Janmaat a solid fight for a 1st team spot. He’d get plenty of game time if he stayed fit. We need a good left back too XxxX.

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  60. Prem: good read, although I will probably have to go through it a couple more times to digest it all.

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  61. Just been chatting to my electrician, Geordie born and bred and Toon nuts, now living in Bristol. He doesn’t believe of Ashley’s interview and said how ever he’s stitched up Rangers commercially you can bet it’s worse for us. I’m inclined to agree.

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  62. Eric I think you are absolutely right in that if you look at the players out of contract next summer then basically most of the dross is gone. And if a few players can be got in this year and some progress is made then there will be room to move further forward next summer. looked at as a 2 year strategy rather than the one year that I have explored in the article would probably make more sense.

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  65. Some small media outlet suggesting we are interested in Roy Keane for the job! Haha

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  67. I didn’t really explain that 2nd Catch 22: Fatty will not spend until the money comes in, he has all but said that. But if we wait, the players will become more expensive because others are willing to spend and will create player wage inflation. Financial prudence may actually hurt us and we will be as reliant as ever on foreign players because as we have seen, British players seem to be more expensive. We have plenty of money for transfers though. We have money generated this year as well as what was left over from last year – remember last years books closed June 30, 2014 so we have had almost a full year to generate more cash. Hopefully we can pick up some decent players this window before the predicted explosion in player costs brought about by the new TV deal.

    Gate receipts will not matter so much as the TV money makes up an even bigger part of PL clubs’ revenue. It is levelling the playing field for all but the top six who have massive sponsorship deals and shirt sales. Your Watfords and Crystal Palaces will be making almost as much money as us and some of them will be willing to spend more than their current revenue to try to guarantee future revenue through premiership survival. It is a dangerous game, but some will undoubtedly play it, driving up player costs.

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  69. just looked at the squad we are left with at the end of next season.
    GK Krul, Darlow & Woodman.
    Def; Janmaat, Haidara, Dummett, Lascalles, & Good
    Mid: Sissoko, Tiote, De Jong, Anita, Colbeck, Aarons, Cabella, Bigi.
    Att: Cisse, Perez, Armstrong, Riviere & Gouffran

    Good basis there. Get rid of Gouffran & Riviere and include Abeid & Vuckic and we need a couple of Good defenders and a couple of good strikers.

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  70. Prem: don’t you think Tiote has already made arrangements to leave? I don’t think he has been seen since his latest mystery injury and has been in the middle east somewhere.

    That’s another thing, are we the only team that let players recuperate in another country or is that common? I can think of Tiote, Coloccini and Ben Arfa who have done this off the top of my head. Also Jonas, but that was a special case as he would have wanted to be with family in life threatening circumstances.

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  71. Eric. I have no evidence either way. If he has he has. Lots of options out there. Tom Huddlestone could do a job. But then we have players who can do the CDM role.

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  72. Huddlestone is very hit and miss and flatters to deceive. Remember he wouldn’t cut his hair until he scored and it ended up being almost full on Rasta because it took him so long. I think we should avoid non-scoring central mid-fielders like the plague – and that should probably include Tiote. I think it really makes a difference if CMs can at least chip in with 3 or 4 goals – especially if we are going to stick with Rivierre 🙂

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  75. Kimtoon: Keane would want it all his own way, you know him. I doubt if he would accept or get along with the coaches, especially one that has a tendency to ask fans out for a fight.

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