Eddie Howe transfer policy set to continue this summer – A long-term dilemma for NUFC?

The summer transfer window feels like a distant concern at the moment, as we still have plenty to play for in the Premier League.

The finishing position will dictate the recruitment policy. If we manage to finish in the top four, there will be greater funds available to spend and there will be a want to increase the quality of the squad. It will be difficult to challenge in Europe’s premier competition without greater depth and quality.

If the club qualify for one of the two lesser European competitions, there will still be a desire for more depth, but the budget will be smaller and the club won’t need to bring in as much quality.

There will be a lot of planning going on behind the scenes to ensure the club are ready to complete their business swiftly in the summer. Dan Ashworth and Steve Nickson will be central to those plans. Eddie Howe will also be part of discussions, but his involvement will ramp up once the season is completed.

In the modern game, the power in the transfer market has shifted from the manager to the club, with the rise of sporting directors and analytics. This has been done to ensure clubs have a coherent and consistent recruitment approach. By doing this, a squad can always be evolving and not be a mixture of signings made by different managers.

Brighton and Brentford are the best examples of this in the Premier League, as their recruitment approach is consistent and doesn’t rely on any individual. Brighton lost Dan Ashworth, Graham Potter and a number of their recruitment department over the last 12 months, but they continue to operate effectively. This is the aim for every club. We have made moves to create a similar system with Ashworth leading this. A number of analytics and scouting roles have been advertised in recent months.

In the first few months of the takeover, Eddie Howe took on the duties of a sporting director and led the January transfer window in 2022. This led to five signings (Kieran Trippier, Chris Wood, Dan Burn, Matt Targett and Bruno Guimaraes), with a clear focus on Premier League experience. At the time, that was the correct approach, as we needed players that could immediately perform in a relegation battle. The exception was Guimaraes, who was seemingly a long-term target of Steve Nickson. That deal was likely one that the club believed had to be done in January before a Champions League club made a move.

In the summer, Nick Pope, Sven Botman and Alexander Isak followed, with Targett making his own move permanent. In the most recent transfer window, Anthony Gordon and Harrison Ashby were brought in, with Garang Kuol also joining before being loaned out as a developmental player.

Since the takeover, 70% of the first team signings have been Premier League based or an England international (in the case of Trippier). This shows a clear preference in the recruitment of the club, to sign players already acclimatised to the league. The ones that don’t fit that criteria are Bruno, Isak and Botman, but all were already considered Champions League calibre talents. The club seem reluctant to take gambles on players in overseas markets, even if they are available for cheaper prices.

Anthony Gordon is an interesting case in point. At £45 million, he is a huge investment made by the club, especially given the concerns about FFP. He has become the second most expensive player in the club’s history. Inflation means that transfer records will keep being broken, but for an England youth international with 10 Premier League goal involvements, it is a big risk.

There is no doubting that Gordon is a talented player, with huge potential. In Howe, we have a coach that can get the best out of his squad and there is a good chance that the attacker develops into a full international. However, a similar player could have been sourced in a foreign market for half the price. Given the riches of the Premier League and squad registration rules, the domestic market is the most expensive one there is. Clubs don’t need to sell players and can charge huge amounts for their players.

The recent links to Scott McTominay and the long-standing interest in James Maddison suggest that we will be very active in the domestic market again this summer. The preference for experienced Premier League players does suggest that Howe is still playing a leading role in recruitment.

The manager should always be involved in discussions and make clear which positions he needs more reinforcements in. However, it can be dangerous to give a manager too much agency, even one as loved and well respected as Howe. If he had been appointed following the arrival of Ashworth, it is unlikely that he would have the same authority in recruitment.

Due to the timing of his appointment, coupled with the success of the first January transfer window, Howe has a powerful position.

Over the coming windows, there needs to be more fluidity to our recruitment strategy. Although there will be times when we need players with Premier League experience or homegrown status, there is much greater value in foreign markets. This is something Brighton have shown best of all, with their network in South America, a market Dan Ashworth will want to operate in for us too.

Last summer, we were linked tentatively with Rasmus Højlund, who eventually joined Atalanta. He has been a huge success in Italy and he has once again been linked with a move to the North East. If we did pursue a move, he would cost at least double – maybe even treble – the amount that was paid last summer. We need to be more proactive in our recruitment to get these players before the prices sky rocket.

As the recruitment roles get filled and people get settled into the club, it is likely that the markets we operate in will increase. For the time being, we will see more signings in the British market, as this is a market that Howe knows well and he is still playing a big role.