The statisticians at FiveThirtyEight have updated their Premier League predictions following Newcastle’s 6-1 win over Spurs on Sunday; a victory that handed our top-four hopes another almighty boost.
They believe we now have an 86% chance of qualifying for the Champions League, backing us to end the season in 4th and 10 points clear of Brighton; who they expect to finish above Liverpool and Spurs in 5th.
Elsewhere, they believe Man Utd have an 85% chance of the top-four – 1% less than Eddie’s Mags – giving Brighton (17%), Liverpool (10%) and Spurs (2%) little hope of beating us to it.
Brighton have two games in hand on Newcastle and play Nottingham Forest at the City Ground tonight, giving them a chance to move seven points behind us. Even then, it’s a tough ask to overturn such a deficit with games running out.
Spurs are in a mess and have two tough fixtures to come, while Liverpool remain nine points behind us after our huge win over the weekend. The Reds have a winnable run-in, yet they’ve not shown the sort of consistency needed to trouble us at this late stage. Even if they won every remaining game, they can’t catch us if we pick up more than 12 points from our final seven games; four of which are against Everton, Southampton, Leeds and Leicester (four of the bottom five).
Here’s FiveThirtyEight’s predicted table in full, seeing Man City win the title, Chelsea finish outside the top 10 and Everton, Forest and Southampton suffering relegation:
